13.5.25

ne bekliyoruz?

öcalan'ın çağrısı, çağrının sahneleniş biçimi, bahçeli'nin tavrı, erdoğan'ın bilgi vermeden "müjde gelecek" müjdesi vermesi, pkk'nın olumlu olduğu anlaşılan kararı - bütün bunlar, türkiye'nin geleneksel kürt politikasını ciddi bir güncellemeden geçirdiğini gösteriyor. bu yalnız türkiye'yi değil, abd'yi, avrupa birliği'ni, suriye'yi, ırak'ı, iran'ı ve israil'i dahil eden bir denkleme dayanıyor. kuzey ırak'ta bir tür özerkliği olan, daha uzun vadede bağımsızlığı hedefleyecek bir kürt bölgesi oluşmuş durumda - türkiye rojava yönetimiyle sessizce işbirliği yapıyor ama bağımsızlığına kesin olarak karşı. suriye'deki kürtlerin ülke yönetiminde söz sahibi olma mücadeleleri sürüyor, israil'in tavrının ne olacağını ve bu mücadelenin nasıl sonuçlanacağını hep birlikte göreceğiz. iran kendi kürtlerini mutlak baskı altında tutmayı sürdürüyor; orada bir gevşeme ihtimali şimdilik görünmüyor ama diğer dengeler yerine oturduğunda ne olur söylemek güç. 

 pkk'nın tasfiyesine karşılık türkiye ne verdi, ne vereceğinin sözünü verdi, karşılığında başka neler isteyecek? 

görünen o ki pkk bu kez gerçekten tasfiye edilecek, dem parti akp'ye yeni anayasa ve erdoğan'a 3. dönem desteği verecek. imamoğlu ve diğerleri çıkamayacak. seçim değil referandum olacak, kürt oylarının önemli bir bölümü "evet" diyecek çünkü yeni anayasada türkiye'deki kürtler için bazı maddeler eklenecek ve referandum sonrasında tutuklular serbest bırakılacak.

chp tabanının önemli bir kısmı bundan çok rahatsız, chp'nin bu süreci desteklemesinden daha da rahatsız. referandumda hayır diyeceklerin sayısı bundan etkilenebilir, oy vermeyen chp'li sayısı artabilir. chp mecburen böyle yapıyor çünkü kürt oylarına talip olmak zorunda, ama akp'nin somut vaatlerine karşılık ancak "biz iktidar olursak" diyebildiği için pek de ikna edici değil, en azından şimdilik. 

refererandum yaklaşırken akp'nin gerginliği son raddede artırmasını bekliyorum. 2024'te seferberlik ilan etme yetkisi meclisten alınıp cumhurbaşkanına verilmişti, geçtiğimiz günlerdeyse seferberlik ilan edildiğinde silah altına alınacak yedeklerin maaşlarının nasıl ödeneceğine dair bir yönetmelik imzaladı erdoğan. iş bu detaya geldiyse seferberlik ve savaş hali ilanı gerçek bir seçenek olmuş demektir. bu ilan edildiğinde seçimler bir yıllığına ertelenir, bu erteleme her yıl yenilenebilir. başka bir deyişle akp referandumu kazanacağından ne zaman emin olursa referandum o zaman yapılır.

bu durum karşısında chp her ne yapacaksa seferberlikten önce yapması şart elbette. 



9.5.25

Limited Kurdish Mobilization for Demirtaş: A Sociopolitical Analysis

 Introduction

Selahattin Demirtaş, the former co-chair of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), has been imprisoned since November 2016 on terrorism-related charges. His jailing was part of a broader crackdown that decimated the HDP’s leadership and ranks. Initially, Demirtaş’s arrest sparked anger and street protests by Kurdish communities and supporters – demonstrations that were quickly met with mass arrests, tear gas, and water cannons. Yet in the years following, public or political mobilization in support of Demirtaş has remained relatively muted. This stands in stark contrast to the strong, visible support that opposition figures like Ekrem İmamoğlu (of the secular CHP) have garnered when facing government pressure. This report examines the reasons behind this disparity, exploring sociopolitical dynamics, strategic choices, institutional pressures, and evolving public sentiment among Turkey’s Kurds since 2016.

Background: Demirtaş’s Imprisonment and Initial Reactions

Demirtaş rose to prominence as a charismatic, moderate voice for Kurdish rights and broader Turkish democracy, even earning comparisons to Nelson Mandela. His HDP had scored unprecedented electoral successes in 2015, helping deny President Erdoğan’s party a majority, and he ran for president in 2014 and 2018. However, after the collapse of the Kurdish-Turkish peace process in 2015 and the failed coup attempt in 2016, the Turkish state moved decisively against Kurdish political actors. In November 2016, Demirtaş and several HDP MPs were arrested in a sweeping anti-HDP operation. Courts ordered the detention of nine HDP lawmakers (including Demirtaş) on terror charges, after parliament – with tacit CHP consent – controversially lifted their immunity earlier that year. This crackdown aimed to “decapitate” the Kurdish political movement by removing its most popular democratic leader.

Outrage over Demirtaş’s jailing led to protests in various cities, especially in the predominantly Kurdish southeast and in Istanbul. However, these demonstrations were swiftly suppressed. Dozens of demonstrators were arrested at a number of rallies nationwide, with security forces using tear gas in Istanbul and water cannons in Ankara to disperse crowds. The state of emergency declared after the 2016 coup attempt created an atmosphere in which dissent – particularly Kurdish dissent – was easily criminalized. The harsh response in those early days set the tone, instilling fear that any overt support for Demirtaş could be met with punishment.

A Stark Contrast: Support for İmamoğlu vs. Demirtaş

In contrast to Demirtaş’s plight, when Istanbul’s CHP mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu faced political threats (such as a 2019 election rerun and a 2022 conviction aimed at banning him from politics), he enjoyed mass public support. Huge crowds rallied in Istanbul to defend İmamoğlu’s democratic mandate, seeing him as a symbol of opposition to Erdoğan’s rule. Even under police restrictions, daily rallies in front of Istanbul’s City Hall drew tens of thousands across opposition sectors. This difference raises the question: Why haven’t Turkish Kurds mounted a similar sustained mobilization for Demirtaş? Several interlocking factors help explain this disparity. İmamoğlu, as a CHP figure, appeals to a wide coalition of opposition groups (secularists, centrists, some conservatives, etc.), while Demirtaş’s support base is largely Kurdish and leftist. Many non-Kurdish Turks who protested for İmamoğlu remain hesitant to champion a Kurdish leader unfairly branded as a “terrorist” by the state. Conversely, Kurdish activists have often stood alone, without broad Turkish public support, when their leaders are targeted.

İmamoğlu’s case (overturning an election result, or a ban on a popular mayor) was seen as an immediate threat to Turkey’s democracy that united the opposition. Demirtaş’s imprisonment, though a glaring injustice, has tragically become part of an ongoing, long-term repression of Kurds – a struggle that many in the Turkish opposition view as riskier or less relatable to rally around openly.

The contrast is also rooted in narratives: İmamoğlu is framed as an innocent democrat facing authoritarianism, whereas pro-government propaganda paints Demirtaş as a terrorist collaborator. This propaganda, combined with Turkey’s ethnic divides, makes it harder to galvanize widespread street support for Demirtaş beyond his core base.

State Repression and the Fear Factor

One of the strongest deterrents to public mobilization for Demirtaş has been the fear of state repression. Since 2015, and especially after 2016, the Turkish state’s response to Kurdish political activism has been draconian. Key examples illustrate this climate: In the years after Demirtaş’s jailing, thousands of HDP members and Kurdish activists have been imprisoned on terrorism charges. By early 2018, roughly “almost 12,000 – or a third of HDP members – had been detained and sent to jail” by Erdoğan’s regime. As of 2019, at least 10 HDP parliamentarians (including Demirtaş) and 46 Kurdish mayors were behind bars, alongside thousands of party activists, effectively gutting the HDP’s organizational capacity. This unprecedented crackdown signaled to Kurdish communities that any protest or overt support could invite harsh repercussions. Indeed, the “draconian state response has left little room for Kurdish political expression.”[1]

Nearly all elected Kurdish mayors from the 2014 and 2019 local elections were removed by the government and replaced with state-appointed trustees. This not only disenfranchised Kurdish voters but also undercut grassroots organizing. Communities saw that even successful, peaceful political participation (electing mayors or MPs) was nullified by Ankara. This fosters a sense of futility: why protest or vote if the state will simply override Kurdish voices? Many Kurds have thus been demotivated from open activism, focusing instead on preserving what space remains.

Kurdish gatherings often face blanket bans. Even long-running civil initiatives like the “Saturday Mothers” (relatives protesting disappearances since the 1980s) are routinely disrupted by police. Newroz (Kurdish new year) celebrations and other cultural events are heavily policed. This constant surveillance and intervention create a chilling effect. One activist, speaking in 2023, noted that mobilizations are rare, [and] the reflex to protest in the street has become quite unusual and risky for ordinary citizens under Erdoğan’s authoritarian climate[2]. The Kurdish populace, having witnessed the bloody fallout of past protests (such as the 2014 Kobani demonstrations and the urban clashes of 2015-16), understandably prioritize personal and community safety.

In summary, state violence and legal persecution have dampened public mobilization. Each Kurdish family knows someone imprisoned or oppressed for political reasons, cultivating a collective trauma and caution. The price of dissent is perceived as exceedingly high – a stark contrast to CHP-led rallies in Western Turkey, which, while not immune to crackdown, have a comparatively safer space due to larger numbers and greater media visibility.

Internal HDP Dynamics and Strategic Choices

Another factor is the strategic recalibration within the Kurdish political movement after Demirtaş’s imprisonment. The HDP and its base had to adapt to survive. Demirtaş was not only the most popular Kurdish politician but also a unique bridge between Kurds and Turkish liberals. With him and other charismatic leaders in prison, the HDP’s remaining leadership adopted a cautious, collective approach. The party prioritized legal battles (to fight the closure case against it) and electoral participation over street protests that could give the state a pretext for a ban. This meant channeling activism into the ballot box rather than the barricades. Indeed, since 2016 the HDP has often pursued a low-profile “third way” – neither aligning fully with the Turkish opposition nor resorting to violence – to protect its existence. Junior partners in HDP’s alliances sometimes complained that the HDP became too narrowly focused on self-preservation and the Kurdish issue, but given the existential threat, such focus was arguably unavoidable.

In the late 2010s, HDP strategists made a deliberate choice to eschew mass protests in favor of electoral impact. Most famously, in the 2019 local elections, the HDP did not field candidates in major western cities and tacitly supported CHP candidates. From his prison cell, Demirtaş himself urged Kurdish voters to back the HDP in the southeast but vote for the CHP’s Ekrem İmamoğlu in Istanbul – support the HDP in the east… and back the CHP in the west,” he advised. This strategy paid off: HDP regained many Kurdish-majority municipalities, and the CHP won cities like Istanbul and Ankara with Kurdish voter support[3]. It was a new form of activism – using the ballot to punish Erdoğan, rather than confrontation in the streets. The success, however, was met with a backlash: Ankara swiftly intensified repression after 2019, arresting more HDP members and re-imposing trustees over elected mayors to sow discord within the opposition and prevent effective cooperation.”

Despite incarceration, Demirtaş remained an influential voice, often communicating via his lawyers on social media. By 2020-2022, he was commenting on daily politics, advocating Kurdish–Turkish unity for democracy, and even openly criticizing the PKK’s resort to arms. These statements, which were bolder and more conciliatory than the official HDP line, fueled talk of a rift – some speculated a tension between Demirtaş and both the HDP’s current leadership and the PKK. Internally, this may have caused strategic ambivalence: Should the movement foreground Demirtaş’s moderate, pro-peace messaging (risking backlash from hardliners), or keep him somewhat in the background while focusing on collective leadership? The result was a measured approach – the HDP certainly did not disown Demirtaş (he remains a hero to the base), but organized campaigns specifically centered on him (such as a major “Free Demirtaş” mass rally) were sparse. The party tended to frame Demirtaş’s fate as one of many injustices under Erdoğan, rather than elevate him singularly and risk further angering the regime or nationalists.

In essence, survival instincts and strategic pragmatism shaped the HDP’s actions. Rather than street mobilization for Demirtaş that could provoke bans or violence, the party bet on electoral and legal resistance. While arguably effective in some instances (e.g. contributing to opposition victories), this strategy inevitably meant less public spectacle around Demirtaş’s imprisonment – a calculated trade-off.

Kurdish Public Sentiment and Demobilization

How have ordinary Turkish Kurds themselves felt and acted in Demirtaş’s absence? The sociopolitical mood in Kurdish-majority areas offers important context. The breakdown of the peace process in 2015 led to heavy fighting in Kurdish towns (like Sur, Cizre, Nusaybin), where urban warfare between state forces and PKK-linked militants caused massive destruction and civilian displacement. Many Kurdish civilians were caught in the crossfire. According to analysts, the fighting in the cities in 2015-2016 inflicted deep trauma”[4], and there remains little appetite [among Kurds] for a return to [past] levels of violence.”[5] This means that while Kurds deeply resent state repression, they are also wary of any form of struggle that could escalate to violence or chaos. Public protests, unfortunately, often carry the risk of violence when met with heavy-handed policing. Thus, a kind of protest fatigue and fear has set in among parts of the community – an understandable caution after years of upheaval.

Many Kurds feel politically alienated and cynical about Turkey’s opposition politics. They remember that in the June 2015 general election, liberal Turks voted for the HDP (then led by Demirtaş) to block Erdoğan, but when Erdoğan turned around and cracked down on Kurds in late 2015, those Turkish allies did not mobilize to defend Kurdish rights. This left a lasting bitterness. As one expert notes, Kurdish voters suspect they were used by Erdoğan’s Turkish opponents in June 2015 – and discarded once [Erdoğan’s AKP] had been stripped of its majority, with no follow-through on Kurdish rights[6]. The same pattern seemed to repeat in 2019: Kurds delivered Istanbul to İmamoğlu, but their support has not been rewarded with any discernible shift in the CHP’s stance on the Kurdish issue. For instance, the CHP has remained largely silent on freeing political prisoners like Demirtaş to avoid nationalist backlash. This breeds resentment and demotivation: if even the opposition takes Kurdish support for granted, why should Kurds stick their necks out?

Among Kurdish communities, there is a palpable sentiment of marginalization. “Kurds are only important for their votes. And then what happens? Nothing. We remain second-class even in a democracy,” said one Kurdish voter, who openly wonders if any new government would truly free Demirtaş and “hundreds of others” wrongfully jailed.[7] Such doubt reflects a broader loss of faith. Demirtaş, once a figure of hope, is now a symbol of unkept promises: he represented a democratic breakthrough that never fully materialized. While Kurds admire his resilience (he has written books and stayed upbeat in prison), many have shifted their focus to daily hardships and local issues, expressing their dissent more quietly (or just at the ballot box) rather than through large demonstrations that they believe won’t change the outcome. In short, public sentiment has evolved from hope to hardened realism – an acceptance that overt activism might do little except invite repression, unless larger political changes occur.

The Turkish Opposition’s Approach: Sidestepping the Kurdish Question

Another crucial piece is the stance of Turkey’s broader opposition (CHP and its allies) toward Demirtaş and Kurdish issues. This affects how much visibility and support Demirtaş’s cause receives nationwide. The CHP, the main opposition party, has walked a tightrope regarding the Kurdish issue. On one hand, its leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has decried the injustices of the Erdoğan regime and in principle opposes the arbitrary imprisonment of politicians. On occasion, CHP figures have acknowledged that Demirtaş (and others like Osman Kavala) are political prisoners who should be released per European Court rulings. On the other hand, the CHP has been reluctant to champion Demirtaş publicly or collaboratively mobilize with the HDP, for fear of being smeared as “terrorist sympathizers” by the government and losing nationalist voters. This was evident in CHP’s lukewarm reaction to the 2016 HDP arrests – some CHP lawmakers even voted to lift HDP immunities, and the party’s protest of Demirtaş’s detention was largely symbolic. The result is a sense that Demirtaş has been isolated. Opposition protests and marches (such as the 2017 “Justice March”) tended to center on CHP’s own grievances, only implicitly including Kurdish prisoners rather than naming Demirtaş front-and-center. No cross-opposition “Free Demirtaş” rally ever materialized.

The opposition alliance has included nationalist elements (e.g. the Good Party) that are openly hostile to the HDP. This further sidelined Kurdish issues in the united opposition’s platform. For instance, ahead of the 2023 elections, the multi-party opposition bloc (excluding HDP) avoided any mention of Kurdish rights or Demirtaş’s status, focusing instead on corruption and economy. HDP was kept out of the main alliance to keep nationalists on board. In practical terms, this meant Demirtaş’s imprisonment was not a rallying cause for the opposition’s campaign – it was an awkward topic to be tip-toed around rather than a shared injustice to denounce. Consequently, Kurdish voters observed that even the prospective alternative government was not prioritizing their rights.

Political analysts have noted that the opposition’s ambivalence has strategic costs. As analyst Gareth Jenkins pointed out just before the 2023 elections, although Kurdish votes are likely to be vital for the opposition to win, persuading Kurds to turn out is a challenge when the CHP still struggles to overcome its historical legacy of suppressing Kurdish identity. The CHP’s recent outreach remained superficial in Kurdish eyes, because it did not include concrete solidarity like demanding Demirtaş’s freedom. This lukewarm approach arguably feeds the cycle: Kurds feel abandoned by the opposition, thus they mobilize less enthusiastically, which in turn makes opposition politicians even more wary of visibly courting Kurdish causes. It’s a vicious loop of caution. Only in backchannel or symbolic ways has Demirtaş been part of opposition politics – for example, Demirtaş endorsed Kılıçdaroğlu from prison in 2023, and HDP voters dutifully supported CHP’s candidate, but the gesture was one-sided; post-election, the disappointments remained.

In summary, the Turkish opposition has largely compartmentalized the Kurdish issue: happy to quietly accept Kurdish votes, but unwilling to mobilize around Kurdish leaders’ plight. This political reality ensures Demirtaş’s situation never gains the nationwide urgency that İmamoğlu’s did, further dampening public mobilization specifically on his behalf.

Is Demirtaş Abandoned? Perceptions and Reality

Given the above factors, a looming question is whether Demirtaş is effectively “abandoned” – either by his own movement or by the broader opposition – and how that perception influences activism.

From the perspective of many Kurds, there is a feeling that Demirtaş and the cause of Kurdish political freedom have been neglected in Turkey’s fast-shifting politics. After nearly nine years behind bars, with court order after court order ignored by the government (including binding European Court of Human Rights judgments for his release), Demirtaş’s case might appear hopeless. Each election brings a promise of change that has yet to materialize into freedom for him. As one Kurdish voter, Asmin, bitterly asked: Will a new government free him [Demirtaş] and hundreds of others…?”[8] – a question laden with doubt. Such skepticism indicates that some Kurds indeed feel Demirtaş has been left behind, his freedom no longer a priority on anyone’s agenda except the HDP’s.

However, in reality Demirtaş is far from forgotten within his community. He continues to be a symbol of resistance and hope, albeit a subdued one. Demirtaş has written several books and stories from prison, which have become bestsellers in Turkey and are widely read by Kurds and sympathizers. This literary and moral presence keeps his profile alive. On social media, Demirtaş’s witty and courageous messages (relayed via his lawyers) are eagerly shared. His name is often chanted at Newroz celebrations and HDP rallies, even if such gatherings are smaller or monitored. These are subtle forms of solidarity that do not always make headlines.

The HDP (and its successor Green Left Party) continuously brings up Demirtaş’s situation in parliamentary speeches and international forums. Demirtaş’s family and lawyers routinely speak to media (especially foreign media) to highlight his unjust imprisonment. International human rights organizations and European institutions also campaign for him. While these efforts haven’t freed Demirtaş, they prevent his case from slipping into oblivion. It is a more institutionalized advocacy, as opposed to mass street protests, but it exists.

There is a notion within Kurdish politics of strategic patience. Many Kurdish voters have pinned their hopes on long-term political change – for example, a future without Erdoğan – as the moment when Demirtaş could finally be released. In the meantime, they participate in politics in whatever constrained ways they can (voting, small demonstrations, community organizing) without risking all-out confrontation. As Jenkins observed, by 2022 a lot of pro-HDP Kurds continued to vote not out of high hopes but as a stubborn assertion of their identity. This suggests that Kurds have not given up on their cause or leaders, but they express their commitment in low-key, persistent ways rather than dramatic mobilizations.

Thus, while Demirtaş might feel abandoned at times – and he has occasionally alluded to disappointment that democratic forces in Turkey haven’t been able to secure his release – he remains a potent figure in the Kurdish imagination. The support for him has simply taken different forms under repression. It is less visible but not absent. The narrative of abandonment is, in part, a commentary on Turkey’s opposition dynamics (as discussed) and on the imposed silencing of Kurdish voices, rather than a literal abandonment by his people.

Evolution of Kurdish Political Activism Since 2016

With Demirtaş in prison and open protest stifled, Kurdish political activism in Turkey has adapted and evolved in several notable ways. Despite state obstacles, Kurdish voters and the HDP network have remained remarkably resilient at the ballot box. In every election since 2016, they have reorganized under new party labels when necessary (for example, running under the Green Left Party banner in 2023 to evade a ban) and consistently passed the threshold to enter parliament. This electoral activism – turning out to vote as an act of defiance – has been a cornerstone of the strategy. It is activism through voting, ensuring Kurdish representation endures in some form.

Kurdish activists have increasingly sought common cause with other oppressed or marginalized groups in Turkey. The HDP became the anchor of the “Labor and Freedom Alliance” with various left-wing Turkish parties, emphasizing that their struggle is not solely ethnic but about democracy for all. While this hasn’t translated into mass joint protests for Demirtaş, it has broadened the Kurdish movement’s agenda and created new avenues for solidarity (for instance, HDP supporting labor or feminist protests, and vice versa). This is a shift from a solely Kurdish-focused activism to a more intersectional opposition activism, conducted under heavy scrutiny.

In the absence of national protests, Kurdish activism often manifests in issue-based campaigns. Environmental protests in the southeast (against mining or dams), women’s rights marches (in which Kurdish women are very active), or language rights initiatives continue at a grassroots level. These are smaller scales of activism where Kurdish activists raise their voice, sometimes under less political heat than explicitly pro-Demirtaş rallies would attract. Through such channels, they keep pushing for rights and keep communities mobilized, albeit in fragmented ways.

Many Kurdish activists who fled Turkey or who operate in Europe have carried the torch for Demirtaş abroad. Rallies in European cities, lobbying of European Parliament and human rights bodies, and international campaigns (like “Free Demirtaş” petitions) have been prominent. These efforts maintain external pressure and awareness. Within Turkey, people are aware of this global advocacy, but the domestic echo is limited by state-controlled media which largely ignores Demirtaş’s plight or portrays him negatively. Still, international support bolsters morale internally and keeps the idea of justice alive.

Importantly, since 2016 the Kurdish political movement has largely stuck to non-violent methods, even under extreme provocation. This is a deliberate evolution. As noted, there is little public appetite for resuming armed struggle or violent protests. Demirtaş himself has consistently urged Kurds to pursue their goals through the political process, rejecting the PKK’s violence. This ideological shift means Kurdish activism is channeled into civil resistance and political expression, even if constrained. It may not be as visible as clashes or huge rallies, but it represents a mature strategic choice to fight for rights within the civic realm.

Overall, Kurdish activism since Demirtaş’s imprisonment can be characterized as subdued but steady. The movement has been in a defensive posture, trying to weather the storm of repression while keeping the flame of political dissent alive in smaller, safer ways. It’s less about spontaneous mass mobilization and more about endurance – “bend, not break” – until a more open democratic space in Turkey might allow a resurgence of public support for leaders like Demirtaş.

Conclusion

The limited public mobilization in support of Selahattin Demirtaş post-2016, compared to the vibrant backing seen for figures like Ekrem İmamoğlu, is the outcome of a complex interplay of fear, strategy, and shifting political currents. Sociopolitical factors – including the Kurdish community’s collective trauma from renewed conflict and a sense of betrayal by erstwhile allies – have dampened the zeal for mass protests. Strategic and institutional factors – such as the HDP’s decision to focus on elections and avoid provocation under existential threat, and the brutal efficiency of state repression in jailing leaders and criminalizing dissent – have further ensured that Demirtaş’s support is often silent or symbolic rather than loud in the streets. Meanwhile, Turkey’s broader opposition politics have largely sidelined Demirtaş’s cause in pursuit of a cautious big-tent strategy, unintentionally feeding Kurdish perceptions of being politically orphaned once their votes are counted.

Crucially, however, to interpret this as Kurds “giving up” on Demirtaş would be misleading. The Kurdish political movement has not vanished; it has adapted. Demirtaş is still revered by many as a courageous voice, and his ideas of peace and democracy continue to influence Kurdish voters’ choices and the HDP’s platform. What has changed is the mode of engagement: from fervent rallies to a more restrained resilience. In today’s Turkey, a protest for Demirtaş might be small and quickly broken up by police – but the next day, you will find Demirtaş’s face on a banner at a Newroz celebration, a mention in an opposition speech, or a quiet vote cast in his honor.

In sum, Demirtaş is neither fully supported in the open nor truly abandoned in the heart of Turkey’s Kurdish populace. The landscape of Kurdish activism has evolved into one of strategic patience and subdued persistence, awaiting a political moment when advocating for leaders like Demirtaş can be done without fear. Until that moment arrives, the support for Demirtaş lives on in resilient, if less visible, forms – a testament to both the oppressive weight of the Turkish state on its Kurdish citizens and the enduring determination of those citizens to seek change through whatever means remain available.



[1] https://www.americanprogress.org/article/state-turkish-kurdish-conflict/#:~:text=ramifications%20have%20been%20equally%20dire%2C,room%20for%20Kurdish%20political%20expression

[2] https://internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article8916#:~:text=the%20development%20of%20authoritarianism%20articulated,public%20transport%2C%20and%20so%20on

[3] https://mei.edu/publications/dem-party-and-turkeys-kurdish-issue#:~:text=In%20the%202019%20local%20elections%2C,time%20stronghold%20in%20Izmir

[4] https://www.turkeyanalyst.org/publications/turkey-analyst-articles/item/696-demirta%C5%9F-the-hdp-and-the-kurdish-political-movement%E2%80%99s-struggle-for-relevance.html#:~:text=of%20its%20supporters%20being%20prosecuted,2016

[5] https://www.turkeyanalyst.org/publications/turkey-analyst-articles/item/696-demirta%C5%9F-the-hdp-and-the-kurdish-political-movement%E2%80%99s-struggle-for-relevance.html#:~:text=of%20its%20supporters%20being%20prosecuted,2016

[6] https://www.turkeyanalyst.org/publications/turkey-analyst-articles/item/696-demirta%C5%9F-the-hdp-and-the-kurdish-political-movement%E2%80%99s-struggle-for-relevance.html#:~:text=elections%20in%20Istanbul%2C%20HDP%20supporters,many%20go%20to%20the%20polls

[7] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/11/dont-take-our-votes-for-granted-warn-kurdish-voters-in-turkey#:~:text=Advertisement

[8] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/11/dont-take-our-votes-for-granted-warn-kurdish-voters-in-turkey#:~:text=Advertisement

3.5.25

jarrett at bach's

 23 ocak 1975'te, köln konserinden önceki gece keith jarrett, otel odasında bach'ın çello süitlerini dinleyerek uykuya dalar ve uyandığında kendisini 23 ocak 1721'de, bach'ın köthen'deki evinde bulur. karısı yeni ölen bach, süitler ve konçertolar üzerinde çalışmaktadır. iki müzisyenin kişisel hayatları ve müzikleri birbirini derinden etkiler. jarrett bir sabah yeniden köln'de uyanır - aynı gecenin sabahına. konseri bach'la dostluğundan izler taşır, aynı şekilde brandenburg'larda jarrett'ın etkisi vardır.

roman olarak çalışmaz ama filminin senaryosunu yazmayı çok isterdim.

1.5.25

seferberlik, savaş hali, seçimler

 ilgili kanun maddelerinden seçmeler:


19.1.2012 günlü, 6271 sayılı Cumhurbaşkanı Seçimi Kanunu

'Seçimin geri bırakılması MADDE 5- (1) Türkiye Büyük Millet Meclisi tarafından savaş sebebiyle yeni seçimlerin yapılmasına imkân görülmediğine dair karar verilmesi hâlinde, Cumhurbaşkanı seçimi bir yıl geriye bırakılır. (2) Geri bırakma sebebi ortadan kalkmamışsa, erteleme kararındaki usule göre bu işlem tekrarlanabilir.

 

Seferberlik ilanı

MADDE 24- (1) Cumhurbaşkanı, aşağıda belirtilen hâllerde genel veya kısmi seferberlik ilanına karar verir:

a) Savaşı gerektirecek bir durumun baş göstermesi.

b) Ayaklanma olması veya vatan veya Cumhuriyete karşı kuvvetli ve eylemli bir kalkışmanın veya ülkenin ve milletin bölünmezliğini içten ve/veya dıştan tehlikeye düşüren davranışların ortaya çıkması.

Yedek personel dağıtımının yapılması ve sefer görev emri verilmesi

MADDE 36

(4) Yedek personele gerektiğinde, kuvvet komutanlıklarınca belirlenen yakın sınıf/branş/ihtisas esasına veya mesleğine göre sefer görev emri verilebilir.

Sefer görev emirlerinin yedek personele tebliği

MADDE 37- (1) Sefer görev emirlerinin,

a) Kayıt numaralı yedek personele terhis olmadan önce birlik ve kurumlarınca,

b) Sicil numaralı yedek personele cep telefonlarına veya e-Devlet hesaplarına bilgilendirme mesajı gönderilmesini müteakip askerlik şubelerince,

 tebliği esastır.

Çağrıya uyma ve sevk işlemleri

MADDE 40- (1) Genel seferberlik, kısmi seferberlik veya özel çağrı duyurularını öğrenen sefer görev emirli personel, duyurudaki çağrı işareti ve birlik seferberlik numarası ile kendi sefer görevlendirmesinin kontrolünü yapar. Çağrı işareti aynı ve birlik seferberlik numarası duyuruda belirtilenlere uyanlar başkaca bir uyarı beklemeden, çağrı için yapılan ilan saatinden itibaren en geç altı saat içerisinde yola çıkar ve kırk sekiz saat içerisinde birliklerine veya yönlendirilmesi hâlinde toplanma merkezine katılırlar.

Özel nakliyat ve özel inşaat firmalarından hizmet amaçlı yararlanılması

MADDE 60- (1) Özel nakliyat ve özel inşaat firmaları, seferberlik ve savaş hâlleriyle bu hâllerin henüz ilan edilmemiş olduğu ancak savaşı gerektirebilecek bir durumun baş gösterdiği gerginlik ve buhran dönemlerinde, Cumhurbaşkanı kararı ile ilgili bakanlıklarca barış döneminde tahsis edildikleri birlik ve kurumların harekât komutasına verilir. Bu firmalara verilebilecek görevler Millî Savunma Bakanlığı tarafından belirlenir.

Araçların getirtilmesi, teslim alınması ve sevki

MADDE 77- (1) Seferberliğin ilanı ile ilgili olarak yapılacak duyuruyla birlikte, araç sahipleri veya sürücüleri için araç sefer görev emri veya görevlendirme belgesi “getir emri” yerine geçer. Araç sahipleri veya sürücüleri, aracı; malzeme, avadanlık ve yedek parçalarıyla birlikte duyurudan sonraki altı saat içinde, araç toplanma bölgelerinin bulunduğu yerde kurulacak olan Millî Müdafaa Mükellefiyeti Komisyonuna getirir.

MADDE 89- (1) Bakanlıklar kanalıyla tedarik edilemeyen ikmal maddeleri, kara nakil araçları, iş makineleri, traktörler, deniz, su yolu ve hava araçları, iskân, bakım ve onarım tesisleriyle diğer işletmeler ve hizmetler, 3634 sayılı Kanun hükümlerine göre tedarik edilir.

 


25.4.25

sevdiğini hatırlamak

mesela urartular. lisedeyken urartulara özel bir sempatim olduğunu hatırlıyorum. urartuları seviyordum; bunu frigler için söyleyemem. ama neden sevdiğimi hatırlamıyorum. hatırlamak için ders çalışmam, wikipedia'dan olsun urartu tarihini okumam lazım. ama bunu yaptığımda bile urartuları lisedeyken neden sevdiğimi hatırlayamayabilirim - çok çok baştan severim ama bu yeni bir sevgi olur. aynı nedenlerden ötürü sevsem bile yeni olur. bu aynılık sadece kişiliğimde onyıllarca devam etmiş bir özelliği aydınlatır. belki de güzel bir özellik olur bu. kendimi hatırlarım, o zamanki halimi. belki hatırladığımı severim.

Recent Geological and Geophysical Research on the Marmara Fault, Turkey

 Introduction

The Marmara Fault is the submerged portion of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) running under the Sea of Marmara just south of Istanbul. It is a right-lateral strike-slip fault with a high slip rate (~20–25 mm/yr) – comparable to California’s San Andreas Fault. No major rupture has occurred on the central Marmara section since 1766, leaving a ~150–160 km “seismic gap” between the 1912 Ganos (Mw7.3) and 1999 İzmit (Mw7.4) earthquake rupture zones. This long quiescence indicates significant strain accumulation and an overdue large earthquake, making the Marmara Fault one of the most closely studied seismic hazards in the world. In recent years, extensive geological and geophysical research – including seismic imaging, monitoring of fault slip, stress modeling, crustal deformation measurements, and earthquake hazard simulations – has greatly improved our understanding of this fault’s behavior and risks.

 

Seismic Imaging of Fault Structure

Advanced seismic imaging has revealed the Marmara Fault’s subsurface geometry and physical properties in unprecedented detail. Researchers have integrated marine seismic surveys, deep seismic reflection profiles, gravity modeling, and even machine-learning techniques to map the fault zone. Key findings include:

Fault Geometry and Segmentation: A 2024 3-D seismic interpretation (using AI algorithms on 3-D reflection data) delineated the fault’s complex structure in the western Marmara Basin. This study identified multiple strike-slip fault segments at depth, linked by extensional and contractional step-overs. The extensional step-overs correspond to the pull-apart basins (e.g. Tekirdağ and Central basins), while a restraining step-over underlies the Western High uplift. The fault zone spans a broad ~20km width and is segmented by these structural bends. Such segmentation is thought to influence where earthquake ruptures can initiate or terminate, acting as potential barriers.

Crustal Structure and Moho Uplift: The same 3-D study combined seismic and gravity data to show that the crust is thinned beneath the Marmara Fault. The Moho discontinuity rises to ~24km depth under the western Marmara Basin about 6km shallower than the regional average forming an EW trending Moho ridge directly beneath the fault trace. This localized uplift of the Moho beneath the pull-apart basins indicates intense crustal stretching from ongoing fault motion. Modeling suggests the along-strike changes in crustal thickness (strong crust vs. thinned crust) create persistent earthquake rupture barriers and weak zones in the upper crust.

Tomographic Velocity Imaging: Three-dimensional seismic tomography of the Marmara region has identified distinct high- and low-velocity anomalies associated with different fault segments. For example, a 2020 seismic tomographic study using ocean-bottom seismometers mapped two vertical low-velocity, high Vp/Vs “shear zones” beneath the main fault strands. These ~10km-wide zones extend from ~8 km depth to the deep crust along the Western Marmara fault segment and beneath the eastern Çınarcık Basin, respectively, and are interpreted as the deforming shear zone of the fault at depth. They likely contain fractured, fluid-saturated rocks – consistent with a fault zone that can accommodate aseismic slip (creep) in places. In between these zones, the tomographic images show a 50km-long central section with relatively high seismic velocities and low Vp/Vs ratio, indicative of strong, locked crust (this central segment corresponds to the seismic gap off Istanbul). Small high-velocity patches within the fault zone were also imaged, representing strong asperities (stuck patches) at depth with little microseismicity.

Implications of Imaging: The seismic imaging results confirm a highly segmented fault with variations in material properties along strike. Notably, the central Marmara segment appears highly locked (high-velocity, intact crust and absence of microearthquakes), whereas the western and eastern segments show more evidence of distributed deformation and fluids. Researchers infer that the locked central section may act as a seismic barrier under current stress conditions, impeding rupture propagation – until stress builds high enough to overcome it. Paradoxically, if a rupture does break through this strong patch, the relatively uniform, elastic properties there could allow an earthquake to propagate at supershear speeds (faster than shear-wave velocity), potentially increasing shaking intensity. These structural insights are crucial for assessing how future ruptures might unfold along the Marmara Fault.

 

Fault Slip Behavior: Creeping vs. Locked Sections

Intense monitoring has focused on how different parts of the Marmara Fault are slipping (or not slipping) between big earthquakes. A combination of microseismic studies, repeating earthquake analysis, and geodetic observations has revealed a mixed behavior: some portions of the fault creep aseismically at depth, while others are fully locked, steadily accumulating strain. Major findings on fault slip behavior include:

Repeating Earthquakes and Variable Creep: Using a 15-year catalog of micro-earthquakes, researchers have identified numerous “repeaters” – small earthquakes that recur on the same patch – which serve as indicators of aseismic creep on the fault. Analysis published in 2023 (Becker et al.) showed that the fraction of slip occurring as creep varies significantly along-strike of the Main Marmara Fault. Overall, the western Marmara segments (toward the Tekirdağ side) exhibit higher creep rates (a larger portion of the plate motion is accommodated aseismically), whereas the central-eastern segments (offshore Istanbul) appear mostly locked with little repetitive seismicity. This along-fault variation in creep was quantified by summing the seismic slip from repeaters and comparing it to the long-term slip rate. Some patches were found to be nearly fully creeping, while others were nearly fully locked. Intriguingly, one sequence of repeaters showed accelerated activity after a nearby Mw5.2 earthquake, suggesting that moderate seismic events can locally increase the creep rate (perhaps by perturbing stress on a creeping patch). These findings demonstrate that the Marmara Fault’s behavior is not uniform – it includes both steadily creeping zones and stuck zones, which has direct implications for earthquake potential.

Locked “Asperities” Identified: Consistent with the seismic imaging, areas with little or no repeater activity correspond to locked asperities. The central Marmara section beneath the Princes’ Islands stands out as a locked patch: it lacks repeaters and produces very few microquakes, and geodesy confirms it is not slipping (see next section). The tomographic anomalies also mark this zone as high-strength. By contrast, creeping sections correlate with clusters of small repeaters and seismic swarms, often near fault branch intersections or basin edges. Geophysical models link this pattern to crustal heterogeneity – stronger crustal blocks can stick and accumulate stress, while adjacent weaker or fluid-rich zones creep. For example, where the fault bends or encounters a strong crust (due to buried high-density rocks), creep diminishes and an aseismic gap in seismicity appears. Between these bends, in structurally “softer” sections, creep is more prevalent. This heterogeneity in fault locking was also inferred by thermal-rheological modeling in 2021, which showed that mechanically strong crust (coupled to the mantle) coincides with the fault segments that stay locked, whereas decoupled weaker crustal domains promote creeping behavior. In short, the Marmara Fault is mechanically segmented into creeping vs. locked patches by the variations in crustal strength along its length.

Transient Slow Slip Events: Besides steady creep, scientists have detected occasional slow slip events (SSEs) on the Marmara Fault system. One notable SSE in the eastern Sea of Marmara (near the Armutlu Peninsula) in 2016 was identified through a combination of strainmeter, seismicity, and GPS data. During this months-long slow slip, the local microearthquake activity showed a distinctive evolution: initially a swarm of small quakes accompanied the onset of slow slip, and later a quiet period followed as the fault silently slipped. A 2022 study provided direct evidence that a slow-slip transient can modulate earthquake activity in this region – as the slow slip progressed, the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes (the “b-value”) and their clustering behavior changed, indicating the fault’s stress state was being transiently altered. Once the slow slip event decayed, the seismicity patterns gradually returned to normal. These observations from the Armutlu area highlight that aseismic slip and seismic slip are closely linked. Even moderate slow slip episodes can redistribute stress and either trigger or dampen local seismicity. Monitoring such transients is now a key part of Marmara fault research, as they may precede or influence larger quakes.

Figure: Segments of the Main Marmara Fault and their inferred slip behavior. Colors along the fault indicate sections inferred to be creeping (blue), transitional or partially creeping (yellow), and locked (red), based on microseismic “repeating earthquake” analysis. The stars mark the epicenters of recent moderate earthquakes (2019 Mw5.7 and 2025 Mw6.2), with focal mechanisms illustrating their faulting style. The 2019 event occurred on a minor reverse-fault splay, whereas the 2025 quake ruptured the main strike-slip fault. These moderate shocks did not release the strain on the major locked patch (red) offshore Istanbul, which remains a concern for a future large earthquake. (Credit: Temblor, after Becker et al. 2023)

 

Crustal Deformation and Strain Accumulation

Geodetic measurements of crustal deformation around the Marmara Sea provide critical insight into how stress is accumulating on the fault. In the past few years, new onshore and offshore observation techniques have refined estimates of strain build-up:

GPS and InSAR Observations: Continuous GPS networks in northwest Turkey show that the Marmara region is deforming at roughly 20–25 mm/yr across the fault zone, consistent with the long-term slip rate. This secular strain rate, measured on both sides of the Sea of Marmara, indicates that the Anatolian plate is steadily moving westward relative to Eurasia, while the Marmara Fault locks in the interseismic period. InSAR (satellite radar interferometry) has been used in some studies to map ground deformation, but onshore GPS and campaign measurements remain the primary data on land. These onshore data alone, however, cannot resolve exactly how slip is distributed on the submerged fault – which led scientists to deploy offshore instruments in recent experiments.

Seafloor Geodetic Monitoring: A breakthrough came from direct offshore monitoring of the fault. In an international effort, geoscientists installed a network of seafloor acoustic transponders across the central Marmara Fault (southwest of Istanbul) to measure any relative motion on the seafloor with millimeter precision. This project (reported in 2019) observed the seafloor for 2.5 years and detected no significant creep or displacement across the fault segment. The absence of measurable slip, together with the lack of microearthquakes there, confirms that the central offshore segment is fully locked from the near-surface to at least a few kilometers depth. In fact, the fault appears locked down into the crystalline basement, implying the entire seismogenic zone is accumulating strain. From the geodetic data, researchers calculated that since its last major rupture in 1766, this segment has accumulated a slip deficit of at least ~4 meters, equivalent to what would be released in an earthquake of magnitude on the order of 7.1–7.4. This direct measurement of strain accumulation offshore was a milestone – it unambiguously demonstrates that a large earthquake’s worth of strain energy is pent up beneath the Sea of Marmara.

Strain Distribution and Locked Zone Width: The geodetic and seismic data together suggest that the Marmara Fault’s locked zone is quite wide (spanning the entire fault width in the central part). Some sections of the fault may creep at depth below ~15–20 km (as inferred for portions of the NAF in eastern Turkey), but in Marmara the plate interface is relatively shallow and likely fully coupled through the upper crust. The 2019 Nature Communications study noted complete locking to at least 3 km depth on the central segment, but presumably the lock extends much deeper. Ongoing efforts are aimed at measuring deeper creep if any – for instance, deploying longer-duration seafloor instruments and utilizing fiber-optic cables on the seafloor for strain sensing (an experimental technique). On land, dense GPS arrays around the Marmara Sea (including stations on the Princes Islands) continue to monitor how strain is partitioned. These measurements will indicate if any acceleration in strain occurs as stress builds toward failure.

Regional Stress Field: An important context for crustal deformation is the regional tectonic stress regime. Recent stress models (e.g. the World Stress Map project updates) show a consistent strike-slip stress orientation in the Marmara region, with maximum horizontal stress oriented NW–SE, conducive to right-lateral slip on the E–W trending fault. There is evidence that stress may concentrate at the fault’s geometric complexities – for example, the ends of the Marmara seismic gap (near the 1912 and 1999 rupture zones) could be areas of stress concentration. Additionally, a 2024 Science study by Ergintav et al. revealed that even distant large earthquakes can subtly perturb the stress and strain in Marmara: the great February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes (~800 km away in SE Türkiye) caused measurable but unexpected far-field crustal deformations up to the Marmara region, indicating the elastic lithosphere responded over long distances. While these displacements were very small, they highlight that the Marmara Fault is part of a broader neotectonic framework that can be influenced by large stress changes elsewhere. Overall, continuous monitoring of crustal deformation is critical for detecting any precursory changes as the Marmara Fault continues to load.

 

Earthquake Hazard and Modeling

With Istanbul’s population at risk, considerable research in recent years has focused on modeling the Marmara Fault’s earthquake hazard – from rupture scenarios to ground motion predictions:

Earthquake Scenario Modeling: A central question is whether the entire 150+ km seismic gap could rupture in one great earthquake or break in smaller segments. Recent geological evidence of past events (and segmentation models) suggest that ruptures may be limited by the structural segments. Historical quakes in 1766, for instance, occurred in two large events (separated by a few months) rather than one giant rupture, hinting the Marmara fault might not break its whole length at once. Nonetheless, the worst-case scenario would be a multi-segment rupture through the central Marmara, producing an earthquake possibly in the mid-7s magnitude (Mw ~7.4±). Probabilistic models have been updated as new data emerges. An oft-cited estimate by Parsons et al. (2004) put the probability of a M≥7 quake on the Marmara Fault at ~40% within 30 years (starting 2004) – meaning that by 2025 the probability is even higher. While such numbers carry large uncertainties, they underscore a significant hazard. The timing of moderate events adds nuance: for example, the Mw5.7 earthquake in September 2019 and the Mw6.2 on 23 April 2025 ruptured peripheral portions of the fault system, but neither relieved the main stress on the central gap. The 2025 event broke only a ~20 km section of the fault (typical for its size), adjacent to but not penetrating the locked patch. These moderate shocks may slightly adjust stress distribution, but the consensus is that the seismic gap still holds essentially all of its earthquake potential.

Figure: Map of the Marmara Fault zone showing major historical earthquake ruptures (in blue) and the seismic gap offshore Istanbul. The April 23, 2025 Mw6.2 earthquake (yellow star) ruptured the central part of the gap but only over ~20 km, leaving most of the segment unbroken. Dashed lines indicate inferred rupture extents of the largest historical events in 1509 and 1766 (both mid-M7 earthquakes) which likely covered much of the gap. The accumulated slip deficit since 1766 (~4 m) corresponds to an earthquake of roughly magnitude 7.1–7.4. The Marmara Fault’s slip rate (~23 mm/yr) means strain has been building rapidly over the past 250 years.

 

Tectonic Stress and Rupture Dynamics: Modeling studies in 2021–2022 have highlighted how 3-D fault structure might control rupture behavior. As noted, mechanical segmentation could cause a large quake to break in pieces. One scenario is that a rupture initiates in the western Marmara (or eastern) segment – which have abundant microseismicity signaling critical stress – and then stops or slows at the central barrier if it cannot immediately overcome it. Alternatively, if the rupture does propagate through, it might do so in a high-speed fashion (supershear) given the homogeneous properties of the central segment. Such a scenario could exacerbate ground shaking in its path. These possibilities are being tested with dynamic rupture simulations and physical models. Researchers are incorporating the detailed structural data (velocity variations, asperity locations from seismic imaging) into physics-based earthquake simulations to predict how a magnitude 7+ rupture would unfold and what ground motions it would generate in Istanbul. Early results confirm that the central locking can indeed act as an obstacle – large ruptures may preferentially nucleate at the edges of the locked patch and sometimes may not break through it completely. This aligns with the idea of an upper bound on rupture length (perhaps two ~M7 ruptures rather than one ~M7.5).

Ground Motion and Directivity: A crucial aspect of hazard is how severe the ground shaking could be in Istanbul and surrounding areas. Recent studies have zeroed in on rupture directivity – the tendency of earthquake ruptures to propagate in a certain direction, which can focus seismic energy. In 2025, Chen et al. analyzed 31 moderate earthquakes (M3.5–5.7) under the Sea of Marmara and found a dominant eastward rupture propagation on the western Main Marmara Fault. The median rupture direction was about 85° east of north, essentially aligned along the fault toward Istanbul. This means seismic waves from those ruptures were preferentially beamed eastward. The study concludes that if a large Marmara earthquake nucleates in the western part of the seismic gap, it would likely rupture eastward and thereby direct a disproportionately high amount of energy toward the Istanbul metro area. In effect, Istanbul could experience stronger shaking than if the rupture went the opposite way. This finding is vitally important for risk models – it suggests that beyond just earthquake magnitude, the rupture directionality should be accounted for in probabilistic seismic hazard assessments. Ground motion prediction equations for the Marmara region may be updated to include this directivity effect. Moreover, near-fault seismic arrays (like a borehole array on the Princes Islands) are continuously recording local quakes to further refine directivity and attenuation characteristics.

Earthquake Hazard Maps and Preparedness: All the new data are feeding into updated hazard models for Turkey. The national earthquake hazard map (last updated in 2018) already recognizes the Marmara region as a high hazard zone, but researchers are working to incorporate recent findings (e.g. locked/creeping segmentation, possible multi-segment rupture scenarios, directivity) into more sophisticated models. International projects and monitoring initiatives have been pivotal in this effort. The MARsite project (Marmara Supersite, an EU initiative) and GONAF (Geophysical Observatory of the North Anatolian Fault, a German–Turkish project) established dense monitoring networks – including ocean-bottom seismometers, borehole strainmeters and seismometers, and continuous GPS – which have collected the rich datasets underpinning many of the findings summarized above. As a result, the Marmara Fault is now one of the best-instrumented offshore fault systems. This multidisciplinary approach, combining geology, geophysics, and advanced modeling, is yielding a much clearer picture of the seismic hazard. In summary, the earthquake risk to Istanbul remains serious: an overdue ~M7+ earthquake is likely in the not-too-distant future, and new research underscores that such an event could produce intense shaking in the city due to the fault’s geometry and rupture behavior. Ongoing studies of tectonic stress accumulation, fault slip processes, and ground motion simulations are crucial for refining hazard estimates and informing preparedness measures in the Marmara region.

 

References

Chen, X., Martínez-Garzón, P., et al. (2025). Rupture Directivity of Moderate Earthquakes Along the Main Marmara Fault Suggests Larger Ground Motion Towards Istanbul. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(1), e2024GL111460gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.dephys.org.

Yılmaz, Ö., et al. (2024). 3-D Seismic Delineation of the North Anatolian Fault System Shear Zone in the Western Marmara Basin, Turkey. Tectonophysics (in press)papers.ssrn.compapers.ssrn.com.

Tarancloğlu, A., Özalaybey, S., & Kocaoğlu, A. H. (2020). Three-dimensional seismic tomographic imaging beneath the Sea of Marmara: Evidence for locked and creeping sections of the Main Marmara Fault. Geophysical Journal International, 223(2), 1172–1187research.itu.edu.trresearch.itu.edu.tr.

Gholamrezaie, E., et al. (2021). Lithospheric strength variations and seismotectonic segmentation below the Sea of Marmara. Tectonophysics, 815, 228999archimer.ifremer.frarchimer.ifremer.fr.

Becker, D., Bohnhoff, M., et al. (2023). Variation of fault creep along the overdue Istanbul–Marmara seismic gap in NW Türkiye. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(6), e2022GL101471files.scec.orgfiles.scec.org.

Bocchini, G. M., et al. (2022). Direct evidence of a slow-slip transient modulating the spatiotemporal and frequency-magnitude earthquake distribution: Insights from the Armutlu Peninsula, NW Turkey. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL099077gfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.degfzpublic.gfz-potsdam.de.

Lange, D., et al. (2019). Interseismic strain build-up on the submarine North Anatolian Fault offshore Istanbul. Nature Communications, 10, 3006nature.comnature.com.

Stein, R. S., & Sevilgen, V. (2025). A M6.2 quake strikes the Marmara Fault at site of large historic earthquakes near Istanbul. Temblor.net (April 23, 2025)temblor.nettemblor.net.